Economic Woes Drive Stocks Down But Gold Up
Economic Woes Drive Stocks Down But Gold Up
As concerns about the global economy mount, the price of gold continues to rise, setting all-time highs throughout the year. At the same time, the stock market has been weak, especially recently. These two situations are related.
Problems in the United States and Europe have contributed to a weak global economy. In the United States, a bursting housing market lead to financial problems at some of the largest banks in the country, resulting in the Great Recession which technically ended in June 2009. The recovery from that recession has been lackluster, despite numerous attempts by the government to stimulate the economy. The unemployment rate remains very high. Effects from this recession were felt around the world.
In Europe, governments in Greece, Portugal, Spain, and others are realizing that they have too much debt, as their budgets are being crimped by high levels of entitlement spending and lower tax revenues. Because of these issues, it is uncertain if those governments will be able to pay back their bondholders and what the ramifications would be if a European country went into default.
Traditionally, if a country is in financial trouble, its easiest way out of its problems is to devalue its currency and pay back its bondholders with currency that is not worth as much. Most currencies around the world are known as fiat currencies, meaning they are not backed by anything tangible, such as gold bullion. A fiat currency is only worth something because governments and individuals are willing to accept the currency as money.
In devaluing a currency, a government prints more money, reducing the value of it. As supply increases, value decreases, assuming demand stays the same. Since most debts are listed as a fixed amount, it is now easier for the country to pay it back. A side effect of this policy is that people within the country who are debtors are better off since their debts are now worth less in real terms, while lenders and savers are worse off, because their existing money is also worth less.
Another side effect is that imports into the country are relatively more expensive, while exports are less expensive. This can help stimulate economic growth in the country.
In today’s environment, however, devaluing a currency is not working because almost every large country is trying to devalue. Because the value of currencies is relative, by definition if one currency loses value, another must gain value. Even currencies that have experienced strength, such as the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc, are potentially at risk as their countries consider policies to stem the strength.
The oldest currency in history is gold, which has been a medium of exchange and store of value for centuries. Until relatively recently, there was an official gold exchange rate, where people could exchange their dollars for gold at a fixed price. Under this system, governments cannot alter the value of their currencies because they are forced to maintain the fixed exchange rate.
In today’s environment, many countries are attempting to devalue their currencies, without success. However, as they print more money, the value of gold relative to these currencies increases, explaining the bull market in gold. Investors also expect that this behavior will continue, adding strength to the gold price.
At the same time, stock prices are declining. Part of the value of a stock is the prospects for that company’s future earnings, including earnings growth. Because of the global reach of the recession, devaluing currencies is not sparking growth, since all countries are simultaneously attempting the same strategy. Because of lower growth prospects, stocks decline in value.
Stocks also decline in value due to fears over higher inflation. While absolute levels of revenue and earnings may increase with inflation, stock prices may not increase because investors are not willing to put as high of a multiple on those earnings since there is uncertainty about their future value in real terms. On the other hand, gold tends to do well in periods of high and uncertain inflation, as investors flee riskier assets and into ones that they view has having more stable outlooks.
For the time being, stocks are declining while gold is appreciating. Government policies and economic activity will play a large part in determining if this trend continues.
